COVID-19 death rate in NCR now higher than from 6 months ago — OCTA

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Metro Manila (CNN Philippines, April 11) — There is a higher percentage of people dying due to COVID-19 compared to six months ago, the independent OCTA Research group said.

In a report released on Sunday, OCTA noted the capital region’s case fatality rate — or the percentage of those who died due to COVID-19 out of all infected — has climbed to 2.02% as of April 11, from the 1.8% recorded in October last year.

“Currently, there are 100,250 active cases in the NCR. Based on the current CFR, 2,091 of these cases will result in mortality, with 1,020 deaths for ages 64 and below,” it said.

The country’s daily death toll breached the 200-mark five times over the past week alone. On Friday, the Philippines recorded its deadliest day of the pandemic with 401 more fatalities confirmed. Nationwide, nearly 15,000 people have lost their lives to the virus since the local outbreak started, with the case fatality rate standing at 1.73%.

OCTA also said figures from last week indicated more minors and people aged 65 and above in NCR are getting infected with COVID-19. Its April 4 data showed a one-week growth rate of 28% in the number of new cases among the 0 to 17 age group, and a 35% rise among those 65 years old and above.

The group pointed out, however, that the average daily tally of new infections in the area has decreased to 4,676 over the past week — a 15% decline compared to the week before.

The current reproduction rate of the virus, or the number of people infected by a single patient, in the capital region has also dropped to 1.24, OCTA said. This is in comparison to the 1.43 seen during the March 31 to April 6 period, and the 1.88 recorded before the two-week long strict lockdown was imposed over the Greater Manila area.

Even so, OCTA clarified it is premature to say cases in NCR are now on a downward trend.

The region, along with nearby provinces Bulacan, Cavite, Laguna and Rizal, will ease to a modified enhanced community quarantine from April 12 until April 30, the Palace announced Sunday. Also included in the list of MECQ areas are Santiago City in Isabela, and the provinces of Quirino and Abra.

The Health department has so far tallied nearly 865,000 COVID-19 cases nationwide, of which close to 15,000 resulted in deaths and some 703,000 have been tagged as recoveries.